Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China - Flight MH370

[Speed Daemon]

they should fit all passenger planes with a trickle charged, battery powered, gps pinger - inaccessible while in flight - that once every 5 minutes or so sends a signal to satellite to say where the plane is, it's height and speed.

If you can corner the global "they", and force them to pay for it, my hat's off to you. I'm not holding my breath, though.

[delta]

I have to say I'm not buying this Australian lead.
Let me explain...
1- the satellite arch from the satellite does indicate the signal came from within that circle.
2- the flight path from the moment the plane turned around after something had gone wrong, together with location of both radar traces imo do not seem to point towards where this Australian search is taking place.
3- in my assumption is my understanding that auto pilot does not fly in zig zags, please correct me if this is wrong?
4- based in the above assumption I believe the search should be concentrated in the the direction of the auto pilot was set, the amount of fuel, the radar positions, the position when the plane turned around, and finally the satellite circle data confirms the search should be inside this circle.

Can someone draw a straight line on a map based on the location of the turn, and the radar positioning data, and maybe Mark the estimate fuel location.?

[MIT EE]

"Somebody has to pay for things like that. Nobody wants to pay for things like that."

And no more South African blonde chicks in the cockpit to flirt with.

I did a quick and dirty cost analysis in response to peterhr's post. See below.

"they should fit all passenger planes with a trickle charged, battery powered, gps pinger - inaccessible while in flight - that once every 5 minutes or so sends a signal to satellite to say where the plane is, it's height and speed."

First four links:

Number of flights per day 100,000 per day (37.5 Million annually, 3 billion passengers) Time Magazine:

http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/02/28/2012-was-the-safest-year-ever-to-travel-by-plane/

Boeings description of what a FDR records (88 Parameters):

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/aero_02/textonly/s01txt.html

"The report by Euroconsult of Paris said the average transponder price of $1.62 million per year for 36 megahertz of capacity":

http://www.spacenews.com/article/rising-transponder-prices-mask-regional-disparity

Transponders on a Satellite (64 to 70):

http://www.eutelsat.com/files/contributed/news/media_library/brochures/guide-to-satellites.pdf

Here is the quick and dirty math:

10 Bytes per parameter or 880 Bytes/Second let's say 1KB.

Transponder of 36MHz should be able to monitor 36,000 flights at any given time at a cost of $2.5 million (using the highest cost figure). Three transponders should be able to cover all 100,000 flights (assuming worst case that flights are all simultaneously in the air). Total annual cost $7.5 million. Divide it by 3 Billion passenger that fly and charge each passenger the resulting .0025 Cents.

As for the CVR you could use the codec that some of the IP Telcos use 32KB bandwidth per aircraft:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G.726

Cost would be 32 times that of the FDR, still trivial at 8 Cents per passenger.

Doesn't take into account cost of equipment and increased fuel costs due to increased weight.

[TerraFirma]

I have to say I'm not buying this Australian lead.
Let me explain...
1- the satellite arch from the satellite does indicate the signal came from within that circle.
2- the flight path from the moment the plane turned around after something had gone wrong, together with location of both radar traces imo do not seem to point towards where this Australian search is taking place.
3- in my assumption is my understanding that auto pilot does not fly in zig zags, please correct me if this is wrong?
4- based in the above assumption I believe the search should be concentrated in the the direction of the auto pilot was set, the amount of fuel, the radar positions, the position when the plane turned around, and finally the satellite circle data confirms the search should be inside this circle.

Can someone draw a straight line on a map based on the location of the turn, and the radar positioning data, and maybe Mark the estimate fuel location.?

There is insufficient information to work out where the aircraft went using any formulaic approach given the information made public.

The pilot appears to have been avoiding radar and after Phuket the only indication of MH370 is the ping.

When using visual flight rules, pilots follow landmarks, roads, etc, using rules of the road - this pilot appears to be doing everything to avoid being found.

The Australians appear to have been shrinking their search area.

This must be the best guess of the debris field and is the last hope for finding MH370.

If anyone has abilities with second-sight and a track record then they may wish to add an input.

[Speed Daemon]

Cost would be 32 times that of the FDR, still trivial at 8 Cents per passenger.

Just to put that into perspective, General Motors and Toyota chose to allow hundreds of people to die horrible, fiery deaths to save themselves less than that. That's the kind of people who "they" are in the corporate world.

Nice cost analysis, BTW!

[Speed Daemon]

I have to say I'm not buying this Australian lead.

You're not alone.

1- the satellite arch from the satellite does indicate the signal came from within that circle.

Well, it indicates that the last signal received came from somewhere close to the circle. We don't know the degree of precision, but that includes some area inside the circle and some area outside it.

2- the flight path from the moment the plane turned around after something had gone wrong, together with location of both radar traces imo do not seem to point towards where this Australian search is taking place.

If you consider that the earth is (more or less) a sphere, and that the map is flat, the straightest line between two points on a globe will become distorted when flattened out. I think it's the correct bearing, although the search location is far beyond the fuel range of the plane with a normal fuel load. That part is puzzling.

3- in my assumption is my understanding that auto pilot does not fly in zig zags, please correct me if this is wrong?

If the autopilot is taking directions from the flight management system, the FMS could store and execute many course changes automatically. Even if a second, highly improbable catastrophe occurred, the FMS could keep on making evasive maneuvers until the fuel ran out.

4- based in the above assumption I believe the search should be concentrated in the the direction of the auto pilot was set, the amount of fuel, the radar positions, the position when the plane turned around, and finally the satellite circle data confirms the search should be inside this circle.

About that circle -- it is based on the last ping, which was replied ot an hour after the plane should have run out of fuel. Since there's nothing that can be done to extend that limit while in flight, the only explanation is that the plane got more fuel somewhere. If its tanks were filled to the brim in Kuala Lampur, the range would be far beyond the search area. And if the plane landed somewhere to take on fuel, why assume that it would resume the same course?

Seems that the English-speaking nations that are managing the current search are not telling us the whole truth either.

[voyager10]

Tell ya,.. Pilots are Crazy Guys,... Asia is even a mad and covered in the venomous flames of Bollywood.
They dance like crazy in a plane and a Pilot comes out of the cockpit to join them on sexy floor dances and to enjoy Hostess's sexy curve-dance shots.,... Now see this ( 1 day ago - Holi in Asia ) - Extreme Level of - Balam Pichkaari - a Bollywood song - Holi Dance Mujara on the plane at 35000 feet,..,...just a day ago,... What do ya think,.. the plane will crash or smthg else??

http://www.youtube.com/embed/81BtMq2u1cg ( <-- just two days ago )


http://www.youtube.com/embed/mEsnb3kUDAw ( this was a year+ ago...)


Can you believe such mischiefs in a plane?

Are not these da sick people,.. who inspire and corrupt the Bollywood sluts all the way to the Plane and also cover the Pilots, in their flames of dances, lust and sex attractions ? ?


-----------------------------------

Mid-air Holi celebration dance on "Balam PitchKari" lands SpiceJet in trouble

In an unprecedented move, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has issued a show-cause notice to SpiceJet, asking as to why the airline’s permit should not be suspended after safety violations on board its flights on Holi came to the regulator’s notice.

Eight flights operated by the airline on March 17 had cabin crew performing a dance sequence mid-air to celebrate Holi. In one of the videos, posted on YouTube, a pilot can be seen coming out of the cockpit and taking photos of the celebrations.“In one flight (SG 876) the commander can also been seen dancing. The passengers and crew can also been seen dancing and mobile phones are being used. These are all violations of safety rules,” said Prabhat Kumar, DGCA chief.

“Passengers dancing in the aisle creates an unruly environment,” said a DGCA official.

The regulator has already suspended two pilots of the airline.

DGCA had summoned senior executives of the airline on Tuesday. When confronted by the regulator, the airline confirmed that the video was of their flight

“While dancing in the flight was not a violation, the pilot coming out of the cockpit certainly was as in case of an emergency his presence would have been required inside. Many airlines have such performances,” said an aviation safety expert.

“The dance was professionally choreographed and was a Holi delight for passengers. The entire dance sequence lasted just 2.5 minutes,” a SpiceJet spokesperson said. “We are looking into the report in cooperation with DGCA,” she added

[BillDee36]

Inmarsat has told the BBC (BBC News24 ) tonight that there were strong indications, 10 Days ago, that the missing plane would be found either in the southern part of the Indian Ocean or in Central Asia! Presumably at the time the authorities in Malaysia were informed of this?. The question is, Why wasn't this current search undertaken 10 Days ago?

[MartH]

mh370 was heading for top secret us base https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/4...929536/photo/1

Origin: The Daily Star (UK) yet another example of our infamous "gutter press". Sorry, they almost make me ashamed to be British :/

Ignore it.

[MartH]

Inmarsat has told the BBC (BBC News24 ) tonight that there were strong indications, 10 Days ago, that the missing plane would be found either in the southern part of the Indian Ocean or in Central Asia! Presumably at the time the authorities in Malaysia were informed of this?. The question is, Why wasn't this current search undertaken 10 Days ago?

I was watching that on Newsnight (BBC2) I thought the dates quoted by the Inmarsat guy when interviewed in the program worked out to two, possiblly three days. The "headline" shown before the program did at least imply ten days.

I'm waiting for the program to appear on Iplayer (catch up service). I will try to record and post the relevant parts of the program.

[Speed Daemon]

I was watching that on Newsnight (BBC2) I thought the dates quoted by the Inmarsat guy when interviewed in the program worked out to two, possiblly three days. The "headline" shown before the program did at least imply ten days.

I'm waiting for the program to appear on Iplayer (catch up service). I will try to record and post the relevant parts of the program.

That would be super! I'd like to hear what they have to say.

I think that hearing it directly from Inmarsat officials does a lot to make that data more credible, after the copious story-changing of the Malaysian government.

The question is, Why wasn't this current search undertaken 10 Days ago?

Actually the first search was in an area corresponding to the arc along which the last ping came back from. It's not clear if the Malaysian government had the Inmarsat data at that time, but the first search areas were along the arc.

[Exadios]

"I can't speak for MIT EE, but my intended purpose, at least at first"

Same here.

"experience with and knowledge about X.25 and ISDN, both of which are/have been used by Inmarsat terminals."

Yes. I was shocked to find out that X.25 was still in use.

I can remember when what has become Inmarsat first started. It was in the mid 1970s and was called 'Marisat' then. It was run by a company called Scientific Atlanta.

Although from an engineering point of view the system is very different as with any long lived system there is a certain amount of historical imperative. This is why we are seeing things like X25 still being used.

[Exadios]

The original "arc" map was released by the Malaysian government; I saw a minister holding a hard copy in his hand during a news conference. While the angle of incidence data was almost certainly provided by Inmarsat and SITA, neither company released it directly to the press or the public, and did not endorse the highlighting of certain segments and deliberately ignoring possible locations closer to Malaysia.

I have little doubt that the Malaysian government was the sole decision-maker when it came to drawing those two red arcs. It was deliberate editorializing, which is precisely what they have been doing all along. Even still, it looks like most people who look at the arcs believe that it's a flight path, and don't even begin to understand that it's a circle upon which there is a single, unknown point from where the last Inmarsat ping was answered. The straight lines added by the NTSB are the actual likely flight paths.

I suppose that in order to launch a reasonable SAR mission, that lots of assumptions must be made just to get a manageable search area to start with. The risk that the NTSB is taking in indulging their "flight to nowhere" theory exclusively is that their reputation will suffer massively if it turns out that the passengers were abandoned at some remote airstrip and starved to death while all eyes were focused so far away. I sure wouldn't want to be responsible for making that decision! If they do find the wreckage, they'll save their reputation, but the fact remains that it is a giant leap of faith.

When it comes to the possibility of someone getting a cellular call out, there are numerous technical reasons why that's improbable. What's more probable is that the flight couldn't have flown over the mainland at cruising altitude without being detected. That is, to me at least, the main reason why the northern path is far less likely.

The thing is that in a situation such as this you have to work the probabilities and go for the most likely outcome that exists at any one time. This means making decisions that, when those probabilities become actualities, may appear to have been incorrect. Such is life.

[Exadios]

"Somebody has to pay for things like that. Nobody wants to pay for things like that."

And no more South African blonde chicks in the cockpit to flirt with.

I did a quick and dirty cost analysis in response to peterhr's post. See below.

"they should fit all passenger planes with a trickle charged, battery powered, gps pinger - inaccessible while in flight - that once every 5 minutes or so sends a signal to satellite to say where the plane is, it's height and speed."

First four links:

Number of flights per day 100,000 per day (37.5 Million annually, 3 billion passengers) Time Magazine:

http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/02/28/2012-was-the-safest-year-ever-to-travel-by-plane/

Boeings description of what a FDR records (88 Parameters):

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/aero_02/textonly/s01txt.html

"The report by Euroconsult of Paris said the average transponder price of $1.62 million per year for 36 megahertz of capacity":

http://www.spacenews.com/article/rising-transponder-prices-mask-regional-disparity

Transponders on a Satellite (64 to 70):

http://www.eutelsat.com/files/contributed/news/media_library/brochures/guide-to-satellites.pdf

Here is the quick and dirty math:

10 Bytes per parameter or 880 Bytes/Second let's say 1KB.

Transponder of 36MHz should be able to monitor 36,000 flights at any given time at a cost of $2.5 million (using the highest cost figure). Three transponders should be able to cover all 100,000 flights (assuming worst case that flights are all simultaneously in the air). Total annual cost $7.5 million. Divide it by 3 Billion passenger that fly and charge each passenger the resulting .0025 Cents.

As for the CVR you could use the codec that some of the IP Telcos use 32KB bandwidth per aircraft:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G.726

Cost would be 32 times that of the FDR, still trivial at 8 Cents per passenger.

Doesn't take into account cost of equipment and increased fuel costs due to increased weight.

So do you envision this system complementing or replacing the CVR / FDR?

[delta]

You're not alone.


Well, it indicates that the last signal received came from somewhere close to the circle. We don't know the degree of precision, but that includes some area inside the circle and some area outside it.


If you consider that the earth is (more or less) a sphere, and that the map is flat, the straightest line between two points on a globe will become distorted when flattened out. I think it's the correct bearing, although the search location is far beyond the fuel range of the plane with a normal fuel load. That part is puzzling.


If the autopilot is taking directions from the flight management system, the FMS could store and execute many course changes automatically. Even if a second, highly improbable catastrophe occurred, the FMS could keep on making evasive maneuvers until the fuel ran out.


About that circle -- it is based on the last ping, which was replied ot an hour after the plane should have run out of fuel. Since there's nothing that can be done to extend that limit while in flight, the only explanation is that the plane got more fuel somewhere. If its tanks were filled to the brim in Kuala Lampur, the range would be far beyond the search area. And if the plane landed somewhere to take on fuel, why assume that it would resume the same course?

Seems that the English-speaking nations that are managing the current search are not telling us the whole truth either.

The area Australia is searching is right at the end of the satellite radius and in my opinion has no relation to the direction the plane was last seen in the radar, imo I think the plane went on towards the diego garcia airport (more or less)... why would the plane on auto pilot turn south or North and not go straigh on, this is based on the assumption that pilots lost control and plane was navigating on auto pilot heading towards the nearest airport in Malaysia, as the plane did not land there, assuming pilot's were out of action and plane was still on auto pilot, imo it would have carried on, if auto pilot follows certain navigation rules which I'm not aware then certainly, the experts should know where the plane might have headed, e.g. might turn here might turn there...