Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China - Flight MH370

[smay69]

MH30 flies DIRECTLY through the entirety of Iran and it would be reached approximately 7.25 hours from deptature of MH370 (12:00am March 8 UTC). SIA68 would get to Turkmenistan in approximately the same timeframe.

After just watching the FlightRadar track of this plane that night the 7 hour mark and the actual track of MH30 would put you at Bam Airport (BXR, OIKM) in Iran which has an 11,000 ft asphalt runway and based on wikipedia is not really used on a civilian basis...

[iazoniccc]

Indonesia apparently not playing ball.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26629937

[Speed Daemon]

I don't wish to speculate too much but the ping's being relayed for such as time after lost contact and flightpath deviation does give weight to some of the more outlandish theories.

For one we can almost surely say that a catastrophic failure did not occur. The aircraft could not have remained airborne for so long, neither can it stay afloat for so long as to communicate effectively with satellites.

Pilot suicide to me personally appears far-fetched in that all that was required was a trip to the WC by the unknowing party while the other disengages the auto pilot, maximum thrust and nose down into the dark abyss of the South China Sea. Highly unlikely that he was so suicidal that he wanted to die and take 200+ innocent passengers with him, not right now, but many hours later. No doubt allowing time for everyone else on board, including the other pilot to overcome him and take back control.

Almost like something out of a soap opera, but not so much a "whodunnit?" as a "whodunwhat?". Without pushing tin, there's a few countries in and around the northern search corridor I wouldn't trust with a plastic spoon.

LOL..."plastic spoon"

The thing about facts is that they don't possess qualities such as "outlandish" or "belief". Facts are facts; they are what they are. How people react to these facts is a completely different thing. People say that it's "inconceivable" that this plane could land safely, and yet tens of thousands of safe landings occur every day! Even the plane in question has no record of crashing a lot. So why should an aircraft doing what it was built to do be so hard to believe? I don't really care; I just want more and more reliable data.

I agree that the catastrophe theories have largely been ruled out by the lack of SAR results in the area where contact was lost. If the plane crashed into the ocean there, it would be found by now. If it crashed into the ocean somewhere far away, then there's something more going on. Same thing with the hypoxia theory. Unconscious pilots don't make course and/or altitude changes.

I agree too about the pilot suicide theory. The "successful" pilot suicides, SilkAir 185 and EgyptAir 990, the suicidal action was sudden, rapid and unencumbered. In the case of FedEx 705, when a deadheading pilot attempted to murder the three member flight crew to make good his suicide attempt, there was a big fight, spectacular aerobatics, and ultimately a safe landing. If this was a case of pilot suicide, the wreckage should be close at hand.

This is certainly a mystery worthy of a Peter Talbert novel.

[cretanrunner]

Can we place any credence in the Daily Mail, (yes, I know....), story about the only cargo being 4 tons of mangosteens? If this was in fact the ONLY cargo, it kills the theory about a hijack because of a valuable cargo. Still leaves the possibility that a passenger might have been the target, not cargo. If it's neither of these and someone wanted the jet to later use as a terrorist weapon, why would they not just steal or even buy, one of the thousands of older jets flying cargo around the third world? Much lower profile, and no problem of managing/disposing of 230 odd passengers.

[Speed Daemon]

Indonesia apparently not playing ball.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26629937

I'm reminded about early news reports regarding the stolen passports. One thing that came out was that many smaller nations in the region chose to look the other way because of the beneficial impact that the black market trade had on their economies. If Indonesia doesn't want international SAR overflights, it could be because the missing plane is there. It could just as easily be because they have something else unrelated that they want to hide.

It seems that many of Malaysia's neighbors have become fed up with Malaysia's lack of cooperation with their efforts. The first recorded instance was when Vietnamese ATC called Malaysian ATC about the then-overdue flight, ans was apparently told to mind their own business. (To Vietnam's credit, they have the first to launch SAR missions, and have been tireless in their SAR efforts.) Since then, India, the US and others have politely withdrawn some or all of their assets from the Malaysian-led SAR effort. It's possible that Indonesia's refusal is based on bad faith on the part of the Malaysian government.

[delta]

has anyone publish this?

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS370/history/20140307/1635Z/WMKK/ZBAA/tracklog

[cretanrunner]

Doesn't this just tell us what is already known?

[smay69]

After just watching the FlightRadar track of this plane that night the 7 hour mark and the actual track of MH30 would put you at Bam Airport (BXR, OIKM) in Iran which has an 11,000 ft asphalt runway and based on wikipedia is not really used on a civilian basis...

Ok, I realise I am taking this way too far but I have been wondering if I could listen to some ATC along the way to see if anything unusual happened in terms of MH30. LiveATC has some streams (not many is Asia). The Dehli/Northern radar audio is missing for those hours when it would be flying through Pakistan into Iran, but Karachi is available. According to the track MH30 passed by off the coast of Karachi between from about 22:15 to 22:45 UTC (March 7) and I downloaded the archived audio from 22:00 to 23:00 for OPKC. Interestingly 2 Air France planes behind MH30 contacted OPKC to tell it about the route and estimated times to waypoints and request an ATC number (which I have no idea what that is)? They both seem to follow the track MH30 did, but MH30 did not make such a request. The other interesting thing is about exactly the time MH30 was passing by, a plane was supposed to take off from OPKC, and they were told to climb and maintain 5,000 feet because "military traffic was operating at 7,000 feet and above". This could be routine I suppose - anybody know?

[iazoniccc]

Can we place any credence in the Daily Mail, (yes, I know....), story about the only cargo being 4 tons of mangosteens? If this was in fact the ONLY cargo, it kills the theory about a hijack because of a valuable cargo. Still leaves the possibility that a passenger might have been the target, not cargo. If it's neither of these and someone wanted the jet to later use as a terrorist weapon, why would they not just steal or even buy, one of the thousands of older jets flying cargo around the third world? Much lower profile, and no problem of managing/disposing of 230 odd passengers.

If idiots could fly, the Daily Mail HQ would be an airport. They are the epitome of incompetence.

[delta]

From the moment the tracking system was turned off and turned around ( maybe some failure or something much more serious happen e.g if pilots failed to put oxygen masks on and lost conscience ) is it possible that the plane may have been going in a straight line on auto pilot and kept going until it run out of fuel?
Based on how much fuel the plane had, is it possible to work out a possible path and an estimate location towards the time when the fuel would have run out?

[cretanrunner]

smay69, I've been thinking along similar lines, but I don't have access to as much data as you it seems!! Looking at the playback, do you not think that MH30 would have passed through the area that looks good for rendezvous before 370 could have got there? Doesn't SIA68 look a more likely candidate? Can you get anything from ATC for that flight?

[Speed Daemon]

Wouldn't have been far easier and less risky to shoot him on the ground, in his house , etc...?

Sure! But if he's shot in his home, he's a martyr. If thet shoot down the plane, his enemies can control the narrative. Note that the idea would be for the world not to discover that the plane was shot down; no crook intends to get caught.

It would be crazy to shoot down a plane full of innocents just to get at one person. An unthinkable act in most places. However it might not be so unthinkable to some in the Malaysian government, who have behaved in a somewhat parochial manner during this incident. It's not out of the realm of possibility. Despotic governments tend to do terrible things. I hope not, but can't dismiss the possibility.

[cretanrunner]

If idiots could fly, the Daily Mail HQ would be an airport. They are the epitome of incompetence.

As I intimated. But does anyone actually have any hard data about the cargo load? Just thinking about something valuable the pilots had an inside track on?

[smay69]

smay69, I've been thinking along similar lines, but I don't have access to as much data as you it seems!! Looking at the playback, do you not think that MH30 would have passed through the area that looks good for rendezvous before 370 could have got there? Doesn't SIA68 look a more likely candidate? Can you get anything from ATC for that flight?

SIA68 looks like the more likely candidate from being closer for a rendezvous - but if it seems like co-ordinating would be a more likely possibility with another Malaysian flight with flight plan access etc (and if the pilots are involved to work out delaying MH30 enough to make it work). MH30 is the only Malaysian flight which would be close and when it went past the Andaman islands ther seem to be close to an hour where its not on radar at all so that might make a more convenient rendezvous, ie enough time to coordinate linking up where no one is actually watching at all.

Oh and all the data is freely available on the internet!

[iazoniccc]

I'm reminded about early news reports regarding the stolen passports. One thing that came out was that many smaller nations in the region chose to look the other way because of the beneficial impact that the black market trade had on their economies. If Indonesia doesn't want international SAR overflights, it could be because the missing plane is there. It could just as easily be because they have something else unrelated that they want to hide.

It seems that many of Malaysia's neighbors have become fed up with Malaysia's lack of cooperation with their efforts. The first recorded instance was when Vietnamese ATC called Malaysian ATC about the then-overdue flight, ans was apparently told to mind their own business. (To Vietnam's credit, they have the first to launch SAR missions, and have been tireless in their SAR efforts.) Since then, India, the US and others have politely withdrawn some or all of their assets from the Malaysian-led SAR effort. It's possible that Indonesia's refusal is based on bad faith on the part of the Malaysian government.

I agree with both, but if the reason is that MH370 is there, it almost certainly landed there intentionally as per the satellite ping's.