Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Malaysia Airlines Flight Goes Missing En Route to China - Flight MH370

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Speed Daemon
    replied
    Originally posted by mcjensen View Post
    With all these expert assumptions, theories, and evidence coming out supporting one conclusion...all mixed together with other expert or non-expert assumptions,theories and evidence coming out supporting some opposite conclusion...there again seems to be multiple perceptions or misconceptions of exactly what happen or could have happened to MH370...causing the usual great confusion.
    ...

    So which scenario is it?...deliberately done with bad intent for evil purposes or deliberately done with good intent to try and save lives?
    That's the great unknown, and may never be answered satisfactorily. I can only represent myself, and for my part I've tried to weigh the probability of each scenario. The one that requires the least "leap of faith" is the most likely, per Cokham's Razor.

    However one variable that is highly variable is human nature. The most expert people from the US NTSB apparently believe that a plane full of people sat idly by as a deranged captain flew it into the deepest part of the Indian Ocean. I don't understand that reasoning, as there is no precedent for it. The closest that I know of comes from fiction -- D.O. Guerrero in Arthur Hailey's seminal novel "Airport", a bankrupt and suicidal man who intended to blow up the airliner he was on in the deepest part of the Atlantic ocean, so that his wife could collect the flight life insurance, which was common back then. Even in fiction, it didn't work out.

    When it comes to human nature, I can't accept that a plane full of people just sat in their seats passively, awaiting their death as a hijacker flew the plane out over the deepest ocean. Nor can I accept any scenario that is ignorant of the fact that the flight crew does have emergency breathing equipment for the express purpose of staying alive and awake long enough to reach safe harbor. AFAIK switching to an alternate FMS program instead of reaching for the oxygen mask is NOT an approved procedure! That's not to say that those things didn't happen; it will require a lot more evidence to prove definitively that that is what happened.

    So the people who are shouting "pilots are always heroes" have zero factual basis and way too much prejudice to be listened to. It's a very slim possibility that the course change could have been made innocently, but it would still be an indictment of the flight crew -- "pilot error". Air piracy of some sort is still the most likely scenario, and more importantly, the only one that doesn't require ridiculous leaps of faith.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartH
    replied
    Originally posted by Speed Daemon View Post
    Thanks! That resembles the drawing that I would have made if I could have. The only difference is that I'd cut it short at the limit of the plane's endurance as fueled. There's no possible way to fly past that point without refueling, and if they stopped for fuel, that track becomes worthless. Not sure why the NTSB believes the plane flew beyond its normal fuel load. I wonder what they know that we don't.
    That IS a great drawing. My only slight concern is the vertical text down the left side which divides the North/South areas into High and Low "probability of avoiding radar and/or cell tower registration". To me that suggests the map originator (NTSB?) might be slightly biased toward the theory that the aircraft was under the control of somebody who did not want to be tracked rather than the autopilot.

    And yes, fuel load / range seems to be something they either don't know or aren't able to publicly discuss.

    Leave a comment:


  • Speed Daemon
    replied
    Originally posted by smay69 View Post
    It seems the Northern track could only be possible "incognito" - ie if it were a zombie plane on autopilot until is crashed the northern routes are EXTREMELY dense with air traffic and radar, there is no way it could go unnoticed. The southern arc though has practically no air traffic or radar so its quite conceivable it could fly on autopilot that way and crash into the sea going complteley unnoticed all the way.
    I agree. With the northern arc being mostly over China (PRC), and many passengers being from PRC, it's beyond reasonable belief that PRC could have completely missed the incursion, or stay quiet about it. And since Vietnam ATC was expecting the flight, they would most likely have taken notice of a primary return at jet altitudes, and sounded the first alarm.

    Leave a comment:


  • Speed Daemon
    replied
    Originally posted by MartH View Post
    Sorry, this reminiscing is waaay OT...
    My apologies if it's against the rules! Normally I'd share this in an "Introduce Yourself" section. However Mike says: "Postings whose purpose is just to introduce new members are not allowed on this forum!"

    I can't speak for MIT EE, but my intended purpose, at least at first, was to make it known that I had experience with and knowledge about X.25 and ISDN, both of which are/have been used by Inmarsat terminals.

    Leave a comment:


  • Speed Daemon
    replied
    Originally posted by JinbaIttai View Post
    Someone (Scott Henderson aka @_AntiAlias_ on Twitter) put together this composite map showing arcs for each hourly ping, and shows how it leads to the area the Aussies were asked to search:

    https://twitter.com/_AntiAlias_/stat.../photo/1/large
    Thanks! That resembles the drawing that I would have made if I could have. The only difference is that I'd cut it short at the limit of the plane's endurance as fueled. There's no possible way to fly past that point without refueling, and if they stopped for fuel, that track becomes worthless. Not sure why the NTSB believes the plane flew beyond its normal fuel load. I wonder what they know that we don't.

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X